In January 2012, the rubber futures price rebounded in a round and the rubber price re-stopped at 26,000 yuan/ton mark. Experts said that the production and sales of downstream auto and tire industries have shown signs of recovery, and the major rubber-producing areas in China are still in the period of stoppage. The improvement of the supply and demand side will support rubber prices to fluctuate in the first quarter of this year.
The automotive tire industry has improved production and sales
Experts said that the domestic automobile and tire industry's production and sales data has improved, effectively boosting the trend of rubber futures.
Starting from the terminal industry, according to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, since the fourth quarter of 2012, the year-on-year growth rate of vehicle sales continued to exceed the year-on-year growth rate. At the same time, the output data for December of last year turned from the negative growth of -9.27% ​​in the same period of 2011 to a positive growth of 5.5%. It can be seen that with the stabilization of the domestic economy, the automotive industry has gradually recovered.
Some analysts said that dealers’ overall judgment on the total demand in the automotive market since January 2013 is generally optimistic. Year-end impulse sales brought consumption peaks, which reduced the pressure on a large number of distributors. At the same time, January was the peak before the traditional Chinese New Year holiday. Strong consumer demand made dealers generally bullish on the January auto market, and it is expected to usher in a better year before the Spring Festival. Start. In addition, despite February holiday due to the Spring Festival holiday, the absolute production and sales data is usually in the annual low value, but if the workday adjustment, the entire first quarter will be the car production and sales season.
Traced back to the upstream tire industry, after the fourth quarter of 2012, especially after November, the tires' production and sales situation improved, and the improvement in sales also led to a rapid decline in inventory. According to statistics from China Rubber Industry Association Tire Branch, the total inventory of 44 tire companies fell by 1.4% year-on-year, a 3% drop from the previous month, and 2/3 of them had a declining trend. The declining inventory has stimulated tire manufacturers' production enthusiasm, coupled with the year-end task of tire companies to drive production to bring about an overall warming up. According to historical data, early this year, tire sales are almost always the best time of the year. At present, the tire plant operating rate is mostly maintained at a relatively high level, and many companies are operating at full capacity. Therefore, the market is optimistic about the sales of tires at the beginning of this year.
Rubber is expected to continue upward trend
Looking into the market, industry insiders generally believe that, under the influence of the positive factors of macroscopic and fundamental factors, the rubber price is expected to continue to strengthen in the future.
From a macroscopic point of view, the “weak recovery†of the global economy and the pattern of monetary easing have not changed. The US dollar index has shown signs of weakening, and commodity prices have a good upward atmosphere.
From the aspect of supply and demand, after the Spring Festival, the supply and demand side of natural rubber will usher in improvement. Some analysts believe that on the supply side, the main plastic-producing areas in China are still in the period of stop-cutting, and overseas production areas will also enter the period of observing production. Phased low supply of supply will create opportunities for digestion of high stocks. In terms of demand, there will be an increase in the demand for plastics after the tyre factories have begun construction. In addition, urbanization is expected to have a greater demand for construction machinery vehicles, and the expansion of all-steel tire consumption is also a great stimulus for natural rubber consumption.
Affected by the fundamental situation of the domestic downstream and terminal industries, it is expected that spot rubber prices will remain firm in the first quarter of this year. In terms of futures, rubber has undergone a recent correction, which has, to some extent, repaired the widening of the spread with spot rubber. Although stocks in the bonded area and futures inventory are still at high levels, the growth rate has slowed down significantly from the previous period. I believe that after this rest and energy storage, rubber prices will continue to rise.
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