Manufacture 2025 Focuses on the Future Trend to a New Round of Reshuffling

China's manufacturing industry is at a critical stage from "big" to "strong." The existing conditions for development are the basis for manufacturing transformation. With its huge market scale advantages, comprehensive industrial supporting advantages, multi-level spatial gradient advantages, and upgraded consumer demand advantages, these advantages are inherent in the growing Chinese market and are the core spontaneous forces that drive the “Made in China 2025”.

The State Council recently issued "Made in China 2025" to deploy and comprehensively implement the strategy of building a manufacturing power. This is the action plan for the first decade of our country’s strategy to build a strong country. Manufacturing industry is the main body of the national economy, the main battlefield of science and technology innovation, and the basis for establishing the country, rejuvenating the country, and strengthening the country. At present, the global manufacturing development pattern and China's economic development environment have undergone major changes. We must firmly grasp the current rare strategic opportunities, highlight innovation-driven, optimize the policy environment, give play to institutional advantages, and realize the transformation of Chinese manufacturing into China. China's quality has changed and Chinese products have been transformed into Chinese brands.

Investment community is bullish on manufacturing 2025

CITIC Securities believes that “Made in China 2025” will be the most influential innovation line in the second half of the year. Huang Ruogu stated that manufacturing companies account for two-thirds of the total number of listed companies and have a two-fifth of market value, which has a very wide influence. With state encouragement and support, the quickest way to upgrade the manufacturing industry is to use bull market financing and then to purchase advanced companies in Europe and America. We are particularly optimistic about the three major investment directions of smart manufacturing, green manufacturing and high-end equipment. On this basis, companies that prefer M&A integration and overseas expansion experience or potential are advised to invest in the corresponding stock portfolios.

Guotai Junan advised investors to continue to value opportunities for growth companies and traditional transformation companies in the third quarter. “Made in China 2025” is a big outlet for growth. It is suggested to deploy along the three areas of smart manufacturing, industrial Internet, and application. Among them, the mechanical, military, and new materials in the field of smart manufacturing, communications, electronics, and computers in the field of industrial Internet, power equipment and new energy, automobiles, and biomedicine in the field of application will benefit. Guotai Junan also recommended supply chain finance 3.0, Disney, state-owned enterprise reform and new energy automotive themes. The increase in market risk appetite has benefited the secondary stock market, and is also the recommended direction.

Zhao Yang said that he is optimistic about technology stocks. He believes that technology stocks will run through the current bull market, similar to the financial real estate from 2006 to 2007 bull market. Zhao Yang believes that economic growth in the latter half of industrialization will depend more on technology and innovation. Specific to the subdivided areas, the most optimistic about the "Made in China 2025", followed by the "Internet."

Facing a new round of reshuffle On June 6, the “China Modernization Report 2015” released by the China Center for Modernization Research of the Chinese Academy of Sciences shows that in 2010 China’s industrial economic level was about 100 years behind Germany and the United Kingdom and about 60 years behind Japan.

No matter how much it lags behind, the reality is that China must be embedded in the global industrial chain and supply chain, and find precise positioning in addition to low-end manufacturing.

According to the British "Financial Times" report, the global supply chain (intermediate products and services from different places through which it enters finished product production) have changed the world, accounting for nearly 80% of global trade, including about 12 trillion US dollars in the middle Trade in products and services.

John Calverley, Head of Global Subject Research at Standard Chartered, considers rising wages in China's manufacturing industry as a subversive trend, and the global supply chain is reintegrating due to the loss of China's traditional manufacturing low-cost advantage.

Standard Chartered's research shows that over the next decade, changes in the nature of the global supply chain will reshape the global trade landscape. China, which is the source of the world's largest supply chain, will spin off a large part of low-cost manufacturing. India and ASEAN may benefit from this low-cost manufacturing migration, and Bangladesh and Africa will also get a share.

China's strategy of building infrastructure around the "Belt and Road Initiative" indicates that the global supply chain will expand to relatively new areas.

A survey of manufacturing industries in southern China shows that 11% of factories in South China Manufacturing Center are planning to move overseas. China has regained infrastructure space in the new geographic space and has become a supplier of equipment and equipment to the economies of ASEAN and other countries.

From the point of view of the mobile phone supply chain, the most dynamic mobile phone companies in the world are mainly based in Asia. The two most important forces are from China and South Korea. As of 2014, 9 companies, including Xiaomi, Huawei, Lenovo, Coolpad, ZTE, TCL, Vivo, OPPO and Jinli, accounted for 31.3% of the global market share. South Korea alone accounted for a 30.1% share of Samsung and LG, close to the sum of the above nine Chinese companies. In fact, South Korean manufacturers have achieved a globalized layout in handset manufacturing. Among them, about 50% of Samsung's mobile phones are produced in Vietnam.

Due to technological advantages, Korean companies such as Samsung and LG not only occupy some terminal markets, but also are the most important suppliers of mobile phone parts and components. Mobile phone LCD screens, flash memory, processors, cameras and other key components, Chinese mobile phone manufacturers need a lot of procurement from South Korean companies. The screen used by the Apple iPhone 6 comes from the LCD screen supplied by LG. The better the iPhone 6 is sold, the better the LG product will be sold and share some of the profits from it.

Chinese mobile phone companies have the ability to learn and market, have the ability to integrate platform resources, but basically do not have chip-level technology and manufacturing capabilities. The core components rely on imports, such as mobile phone chips or Qualcomm acquisitions Xiaolong series, or purchased from Samsung. The LCD screen of the mobile phone is also mainly from suppliers such as LG, Samsung, or Sharp. As a result, China has become Korea's largest export market for mobile phone parts.

Taking Apple’s hundreds of suppliers as an example, the top 200 suppliers can meet 97% of the materials needed by Apple Inc., including assembly line production, assembly and raw materials, covering the United States, Japan, and China. And other countries.

China not only needs to purchase raw materials from around the world to ensure economic security, but also needs to formulate the China Smart 2025 Plan to fill the market gap after the transfer of low-end industries.

With the integration of Japan, South Korea and other countries' supply chains, aiming at the goal of German Industry 4.0, Chinese industry has both the needs of mid-range manufacturing and also hopes that overtaking of corners will catch up with the smart age, which is not easy. China has a smart business platform, but there is no obvious advantage in smart manufacturing. Well-trained engineers lack a practical atmosphere.

After enjoying the advantages of low prices, China needs new irreplaceable comparative advantages: a well-trained labor force, a large team of engineers, and a convenient infrastructure logistics network. Who can master the key to smart manufacturing, who will be able to dominate the supply chain.

Looking at the future trends In the first quarter, Apple's mobile phones sold more than 60 million units globally, and it was favored by many “fruit powders” in the Chinese market. However, domestic "fruit powder" may not notice such a set of data: Asian Development Bank research shows that although Apple's mobile phone is manufactured in China, it is actually designed and owned exclusively by U.S. companies, and most of the components are produced in other countries, but only assembled in China completed. Therefore, in the wholesale price of an Apple mobile phone, Japan, Germany, and South Korea can each get 34%, 17%, and 13% of their value, while China can only get 3.6%. The fact that China’s manufacturing industry’s ability to independently innovate is not strong leads to a low level of added value.

Fortunately, according to the “Made in China 2025” issued by the State Council a few days ago, the development goals of China's manufacturing industry have become clear in the coming period - from strong changes to strong manufacturing.

After years of development, China's manufacturing industry has built a complete industrial system with a complete range of technical skills and complete sets of capabilities. The industry scale has ranked first in the world for five consecutive years. A nation that can establish an independent and complete industrial system on the basis of “one poor and two whites” will certainly not lie on the top of the world’s number one transcript. Over the years, more attention has been paid to the soundness of manufacturing rather than strong: Some have focused on independent innovation; they have frankly stated that there are few products with independent intellectual property rights, and there are insufficient incentives for enterprises to innovate; some analyses do not have a reasonable industrial structure. The proportion of type-based and producer services is low, and the proportion of general processing industries and resource-intensive industries is too large; some analyses of economic efficiency and resource utilization efficiency are low, and key factors such as manufacturing value-added, labor productivity, and unit GDP energy consumption Indicators have not been improved for many years; some have not been competitive, lacking pain points such as world brands, others focus on future trends, and are anxious for the intelligent, networking, and digitization of manufacturing industries.

Difficulties lie in the birth of the machine. According to "Made in China 2025," China will roughly divide "three steps" and use three time periods of 10 years to finally rank among the world's leading manufacturers of manufacturing power. The author believes that in this process, there are several issues that are worthy of attention.

——Cultivate the driving force for the development of the manufacturing industry. With the deepening of economic globalization and the gradual convergence of the “Internet”, from a manufacturing powerhouse to a manufacturing powerhouse, we need to adapt concepts and follow the trend. For example, in the process of expanding effective demand, we must broaden our horizons, optimize the allocation of resources globally, and release China’s advanced and advantageous production capacity through international production capacity and equipment manufacturing cooperation. In fact, competition and cooperation at the international level will in turn force China's manufacturing industry to increase its core competitiveness. Another example is that the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry in the future cannot be separated from the "Internet" as a new springboard. The profound changes brought about by the Internet will not only be reflected in "from online to offline," but will also be to reconstruct industries and enterprises. The production, marketing, finance, manpower, and organizational structure will be due to the Internet, cloud computing, Big data, etc. accelerate changes.

——Make up the basic skills of the development of the manufacturing industry. The "four bases" of basic materials, basic components and components, basic technologies, and basic technologies are the weakest links in the current manufacturing industry.

The foundation is not strong, often pay more "tuition fees." Most of the high-end equipment and key materials required for the development of China's manufacturing industry rely on imports. Excessive external dependence will lead to a series of problems. In addition, the lack of a solid foundation directly affects the core competitiveness of industries and enterprises.

- Create a great environment for the development of the manufacturing industry. The person in charge of the relevant department recently stated that for projects such as smart manufacturing and green manufacturing, “we will soon issue specific projects and reserve projects will also expedite approval”. In this regard, we have both voted for admiration and we also look forward to expecting - isn't all projects necessary for approval? Can projects that have been included in national planning and conditions meet the requirements of simplified approval procedures and achieve rapid and smooth implementation?

Nearly a hundred intellectual projects are being publicly announced. It is understood that a number of special projects for smart manufacturing in 2015 are being publicized. A total of 94 projects are involved. The reporting units include numerous research institutes and listed companies. In terms of research institutes, China Electronics Technology and Standardization Institute has a total of 9 projects including the standardization and verification system for industrial big data services, the standardization of industrial IoT technology requirements, and an experimental verification system. It is the most selected project.

In addition, the Institute of Instrumental Technology and Comprehensive Economics of the Ministry of Machinery Industry also has seven projects including the Semantic Description of Intelligent Manufacturing Measurement and Control Equipment and the construction of a data dictionary standard research and verification platform, and the research and verification platform for digitized shop integration and interconnection standards.

In addition to the above two “big players”, Shanghai Industrial Automation Instrumentation Research Institute, Shenyang Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing Institute of Mechanical Industry Automation, China Aviation Comprehensive Technology Institute, and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation No. 716 Research Institute also have special projects. The project was selected and the special project involved can be described as “Going out into the sea”. Many smart manufacturing special projects declared by listed companies also appear on the public notice, including the research and verification of a new generation of smart factory reference model for information technology products of Haier Group, and the key to the new model of smart manufacturing in the color TV industry of Sichuan Changhong Electric Co., Ltd. Apply standard test verification, etc.

As early as March 9 of this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the “Circular on Implementation of the 2015 Smart Manufacturing Pilot Demonstration Special Action” and issued the “2015 Smart Manufacturing Pilot Demonstration Special Action Implementation Plan”, which was decided to start in 2015. Implement special pilot demonstrations of smart manufacturing to promote industrial transformation and upgrading and accelerate the process of building a strong country.

The “Implementation Plan” clarifies the overall thinking and objectives of the special action, and points out that the pilot demonstration project achieves a 20% reduction in operating costs, a 20% reduction in the product development cycle, a 20% increase in production efficiency, a 10% reduction in the defective product rate, and energy efficiency. Increase by 4%.

In the previous "China Made 2025" issued by the State Council, it has already been proposed to build a leading group and the leader of the State Council as the team leader. According to the “Made in China 2025” plan, the leading group’s main responsibilities are to coordinate and coordinate the overall work of building a strong manufacturing country, review major plans, major policies, major project special projects, major issues, and important work arrangements, strengthen strategic planning, and guide departments and localities. commence to work.

Judging from the aforementioned media news, the formation of the leading group is also accelerating. Previously, Xu Chi, a strategy researcher at Qilu Securities, told reporters that “the introduction of “Made in China 2025” is just the first policy of smart manufacturing (Industrie 4.0) this year. There are still a series of related ministries and commissions and local supporting policies. It will speed up the landing and form a continuous air outlet. It is expected that smart manufacturing will form a continuous theme opportunity throughout the year.”