With the announcement of the annual automobile sales in 2014, the annual results of the listed companies in the two cities in 2014 were basically settled. Overall, the Dongfeng Department and the Changan Department have become the leaders in the growth of automobile performance, while the performance of FAW-class and other vehicle companies has declined, and the performance of “differentiation” may become the key word of the annual report of the two cities.
According to industry analysts, in 2015, auto companies are expected to continue to enjoy the steady increase in raw material costs and vehicle sales. At the same time, the auto industry is expected to become the vanguard of the reform of state-owned enterprises in 2015, especially the leading automakers will enter the “change” this year. year".
“Differentiation” into keywords Currently, only the BYD family has released the 2014 performance forecast. The company expects net profit in 2014 to be between 360 million yuan and 410 million yuan, down 11% to 22% year-on-year. The type of notice is "slightly reduced".
According to the third quarterly report of 2014, under the polarization situation, the performance of some car companies was under pressure. For example, the net loss of FAW Xiali from January to September last year was close to 700 million yuan. The automakers such as Jinbei Auto, Yaxing Bus, FAW Car, Jianghuai Automobile and Foton Motor all experienced a 40% decline in net profit in the first three quarters of this year, indicating China. The impact of the slowdown in economic growth and the upgrading of automobile product consumption to automakers should not be underestimated.
There are also some car companies with outstanding performance. The company's net profit attributable to shareholders of Dongfeng Motor, Zhongtong Bus, Changan Automobile and other companies in the first three quarters of last year increased by more than 100%. Taking Changan Automobile as an example, the cumulative sales volume of Changan's own brand cars has exceeded 10 million units. The market share of its star models Yidong series, CS series and Yuexiang series ranks first in the Chinese brand segment. The growth in sales of self-owned brands and joint-venture brands directly led to an increase in the company's performance. In the first three quarters of last year, the company achieved a net profit of 5.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 155%. On the last day of 2014, Changan Automobile announced that it expects to produce 2.54 million vehicles in 2014, indicating that sales growth in the fourth quarter is relatively high. The company's annual performance has maintained rapid growth.
Unlike the decline of the FAW system and the growth of Chang'an and Dongfeng, the SAIC Group, Guangzhou Automobile Group, and Great Wall Motor Co., Ltd. are expected to have a relatively stable performance in 2014, with a range of less than 20%.
New challenges are coming Affected by both the economic and policy aspects, both in the past 2014 and in the beginning of 2015, car companies are facing many challenges.
On the one hand, the Chinese auto market has entered a stable growth range, and the industry expects that the annual sales growth rate will exceed 10% in the future. Within the limited growth space, the sales volume of self-owned brands of vehicle manufacturers will be significantly weaker than that of joint venture brands. The competitive pressure from international brands will increase in 2015. It is understood that Toyota Motor sold 1.03 million units in China in 2014, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, while its sales target in China has increased to 1.1 million units in 2015; Dongfeng Citroen sold 320,000 units in 2014, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%. Its sales target in China in 2015 has grown to 350,000 units. Relevant persons of the China Automobile Association expect that the market space of domestic independent brand car companies may still shrink.
On the other hand, the fear comes from the policy level. Taking the purchase restriction as an example, on December 29, 2014, the Shenzhen Municipal Government issued the “Notice on the Implementation of the Incremental Regulation and Management of Small Cars by the Shenzhen Municipal People's Government”. The “sitting” of the Shenzhen Auto Purchase Order has greatly improved the expectations of other cities to follow up. Many industry insiders expect that although the purchase restriction has been opposed by the Chinese Automobile Industry Association and other industries, the increase in the purchase of cities may become a trend.
"The era of investment opportunities driven by sales exceeding expectations has passed, and China's auto industry will gradually enter the post-market era." Relevant analysts pointed out that the future auto industry and even the entire industry chain will be only structural investment opportunities, including energy conservation and environmental protection. , electronic, intelligent and other aspects.
"At present, the car ownership base is large. Although the growth rate of car demand will decline in the future, car sales will actually maintain rapid growth." Debon Securities analysts pointed out that the long-term development trend of China's auto industry remains unchanged. Indicators such as per capita income and ownership of thousands of people show that China's future car ownership will continue to grow.
Future energy conservation and environmental protection, vehicle safety, automotive intelligence, and automotive automation will be the direction of innovation and development in the automotive industry. It is expected that China's auto industry will enter a period of steady growth after a period of rapid growth in 10 years. In 2015, the growth rate of auto sales is between 6% and 8%, which is basically in line with GDP growth. SUV and MPV will continue to grow rapidly in the future. New energy vehicles are strategic emerging industries, and new energy vehicles will continue to grow explosively in 2015. These are great opportunities for auto companies to face in the future.
Dongfeng Motor related people pointed out that the better development opportunities facing the automotive industry are first reflected in the savings in raw material costs. At present, the prices of major raw materials for automotive products including steel, nonferrous metals, rubber and glass are at a low level. It is also continuing to fall, and the automotive industry will continue to enjoy the low cost advantage.
Reforming dividends to the greatest benefit The capital market will focus on the reform of state-owned enterprises. According to Haitong Securities analysts, the rising momentum of the auto sector in 2015 came from “low valuations + more changes”. The so-called "more changes", in addition to the changes in the industrialization of the market after the automotive industry, such as the Internet, new energy vehicles, the reform of state-owned enterprises will give birth to more growth investment opportunities.
For example, FAW Xiali, which handed the worst transcript, publicly shows that as early as 2012, FAW Group made a commitment: since the main business of the subordinate enterprises is similar to the main business of FAW Xiali, it will strive to be within three years. A reasonable way to completely solve the problem of horizontal competition, including but not limited to asset and business restructuring, mergers, asset acquisitions, etc. Nowadays, this paper promises that there is only a period of less than half a year. Many capitalists have put the hope of FAW Xiali on the reform and restructuring of the company.
At present, the top six automobile groups in China are state-owned enterprises. State-owned enterprises account for more than 75% of domestic automobile sales, accounting for more than 80% of the industry's operating income, and accounting for nearly 90% of the industry's profits. Due to the pressure on performance, insufficient growth, and low governance, some auto industry observers expect that auto companies including FAW, Dongfeng, Changan, Beiqi, Guangzhou Automobile, etc. may participate in the reform process of state-owned enterprises, the main form of reform. Including the overall listing, the introduction of strategic investors, equity incentives and so on.
"Automotive companies are expected to become the vanguard of the reform of state-owned enterprises in 2015." The relevant experts of Renmin University of China said that the auto industry is a typical competitive industry. In the future, auto companies will focus on profit, and the reform process will be accelerated.

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