Is China's auto industry overheated? This hot issue became the focus of discussion among many experts at the first China (Guangzhou) International Automobile Exhibition in 2003.
Dr. Feng Fei of the Department of Industrial Economic Research of the Development Research Center of the State Council predicts that the total car ownership this year will reach 25.4 million, and the total car demand will reach 4.16 million. Experts predict that by 2010, China's auto production will reach 8 million - 10 million, second only to the United States, ranking second in the world.
The current high rate of return of the automotive industry strongly attracts investors from all sides. Foreign-funded enterprises, private enterprises, and some investment companies have invested in China's auto industry. Local governments have also tried their best to support the local auto industry. Many places have listed the auto industry as a pillar industry. Under such circumstances, is it natural, a matter of fact, or is it strictly restricted by emergency braking?
At this auto show, many experts in the automotive industry believe that China is currently in the start-up phase of a new round of economic growth cycle. The rapid growth of the automobile industry will be one of the main driving forces. If it is rushed to determine that the automobile industry is overheated, its implementation of adverse control will not be conducive to the sustained development of the national economy.
Zhang Xiaoxuan, chairman of the China Association of Automobile Engineering, believes that the oversupply leads to survival of the fittest and the shortage of economy will only allow companies to become inert. Only through full and equal competition can the auto industry promote enterprise progress and squeeze out excessive profits.
Shao Qihui, member of the Standing Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and former director of the National Machinery Industry Bureau, said: “At present, there are dozens of auto companies across the country that are not terrible. This is a transitional feature of the rapid development of the Chinese auto industry and is driven by the diversity of market demands. Today’s auto industry’s Hundreds of flowers bloom, to a certain extent, also create conditions for the healthy restructuring of the automobile industry in the future, cultivate talents, accumulate experience, and nurture the market, whether to put it in or out, to guide it through the market, and to let the market decide. Until several multinational companies are left behind, they have also experienced decades of repeated changes."
The diversification of investment in the automotive industry, product structure, and corporate organizational structure has been inevitable. Experts believe that the Chinese auto industry still needs a lot of investment, but the country should withdraw from the investment field, and investment in other economic components need not be limited, and investment diversification is encouraged according to the principle of “who invests, who benefits, and who bears the riskâ€. This development and growth of the Chinese automotive industry.
Of course, the government must resolutely oppose the blindly laying out of the project without scientific argumentation, and firmly oppose unauthorized project indiscriminately, in order to avoid excessive low-level excess capacity and cause undue losses. What the government still needs to do is to be good at guiding the restructuring of auto companies at a higher level, and provide a stable exit mechanism for certain small and medium enterprises that have turned to intent.
What exactly is the scientific and rational development scale of China's auto industry? Some experts have suggested that the Chinese auto industry should choose not to seek the greatest but most powerful development ideas as early as possible to achieve a "moderate scale."
In the past, we have always believed that only an automobile enterprise group with an annual output of more than one million cars can be based on the trend of international competition. Now it may not necessarily be the case. Large-scale and large-scale advantages exist, but large-scale careers also have problems with large numbers of employees, many structural layers, heavy burdens, and thin profits.
Shao Qihui said that the auto industry needs a certain scale to have economic benefits. However, with the advancement of technology, the market demand has become more individualized, and the global procurement network has become increasingly perfect. The original "economic scale" has basically lost meaning. Now it should Adhere to the "scale economy" that keeps pace with changing market demands, that is, "appropriate scale."
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