Analysis of Prospects of Mining Machinery Market in China in 2012

Some people use the phrase “it isn’t revived, it's hard to be another morning” to describe the current Chinese construction machinery market. It sounds pessimistic. However, one thing has to be admitted that under the combined influence of domestic and foreign factors, the period of explosive growth of China's construction machinery industry will inevitably be waved to us, just as the previous article in this newspaper wrote. After all, the golden decade has passed. A new period of steady development, transformation, and upgrading of technology has already arrived.

Among them, the development of the excavators in the construction machinery industry that attracted the most attention in the first three quarters of 2011 is the most representative of this trend.

Organized by the China Construction Machinery Industry Association Excavating Machinery Branch and co-organized by Sanhe Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd., the 15th annual meeting of the Chinese excavating machinery industry was held in Changsha, Hunan Province with the theme of “Post-Economic Crisis Era, Development Opportunities and Challenges of China's Mining Machinery Industry”. It is happening at the right time.

At the meeting, Zeng Guangan, president of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association Mining Machinery Branch, proposed that in the next ten years, the growth of excavators will tend to be flat, the industry competition will become more fierce, the profits of manufacturers and agents will gradually decline, cash flow will become the focus of operations, and technological innovation will Upgrade to the mainstream of industry development, the marketing model will further evolve towards the post-market, and domestic components and parts will achieve major breakthroughs.

Li Hongbao, Secretary General of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association Mining Machinery Branch, delivered a speech titled “Development Opportunities and Challenges of China's Excavator Industry in the Post-Economic Crisis Era”, and introduced the overall situation of the industry in 2011 and tapped the future of the machinery branch. Outlook.

He concluded that as an important part of the national construction machinery industry, the Chinese excavation machinery industry has experienced continuous growth during the first three quarters of 2011 following the rapid growth of the “11th Five-Year Plan” period in the context of the complex post-crisis economy.

In the first three quarters, it fell from high altitude to the bottom of the valley. According to statistical analysis of the industry data of the first three quarters of 2011 of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association Mining Machinery Branch, as of the end of September 2011, there were more than 60 companies that manufacture and sell excavation machinery in China. The planned production capacity is about 600,000 units and more than 200 agents. It produces and sells nearly 400 excavating machinery products of different models and specifications.

Among them, the 25 mainframe manufacturing companies included in the statistics accumulated sales of 149,931 hydraulic excavators in the first three quarters of 2011, an increase of 19.34% year-on-year. It is expected that the annual market sales will exceed 177,400 units, an increase of 7% over 2010.

In the first quarter of this year, the excavator industry continued the explosive growth caused by the hot sales last year. A total of 74,576 units were sold, achieving a substantial growth of 59.80% year-on-year, of which, a total of 10,922 units were sold in January, up 36% year-on-year; February A total of 20,355 units were sold, a year-on-year increase of 137%; in March, a total of 43,299 units were sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 44%, and sales volume continued to climb.

However, in the second and third quarters, as if there were no rockets powered by fuel, sales began to fall.

Affected by such unfavorable factors as credit tightening, investment slowdown, tightening of real estate macroeconomic control, and rising domestic and foreign commodity prices, market sales have decreased year-on-year and month-on-month, and dropped from the fourth month to the fourth consecutive month in July and July. Year-on-year comparisons have continued to be crippling negative growth from May to September, and both are above -10%. In the second quarter, a total of 51,254 units were sold, which was basically the same as that of the same period of last year, only an increase of 3.05%, of which sales in the 5th and 6th months decreased compared to the same period last year.

After the arrival of the second half of the year, the Chinese excavator market did not change the continuous decline, but continued to decline. In the third quarter, a total of 24,101 units were sold, a decrease of 17.53% from the same period of last year.

According to research conducted by relevant parties of the excavation machinery subcommittee, over the past year, since the first quarter soaring, the second quarter has experienced a relatively rapid decline, but the downward trend has generally eased in the third quarter, and re-emerged in the fourth quarter. Small climax (except for the 2008 economic crisis).

This year's situation is rather special. Sales in the first quarter were extremely hot and the decline was more serious in the second quarter. There was no rebound in the third quarter. Now that the fourth quarter has arrived, what will be the sales volume?

According to industry experts, with some projects rushing to start during the year, a small upsurge will surely appear as in previous years. However, influenced by various factors, the small upsurge at the end of this year will not be as hot as in previous years. It is expected that there will be a year-on-year growth in the chain growth. Situation, the industry downturn is likely to continue for some time.

At the same time, industry investment has increased, production capacity has continued to expand, market demand growth has slowed down, supply of key spare parts has been insufficient, corporate costs have risen, and industry competition has been disorderly and other factors have also aggravated operational risks to some extent. What is more, some companies use irrational or even suicidal management strategies in spite of market risks.

All these factors have caused the industry's expectations for the fourth quarter to remain pessimistic. The “inflection point theory” in the industry is still raging. Everyone is asking questions. When will the bottom line be reached?

Optimists believe that the second and third quarters of next year will be able to usher in restorative growth; pessimists believe that in the past two years, the industry will not experience the explosive growth of previous years. In response, Li Hongbao asserted that in the short term, the fact that the Chinese excavation machinery industry has entered a period of steady growth from the period of explosive growth has no doubt.

Steady growth in foreign investment brand share was "strategically compressed"

In 2011, the excavator industry was not all a disappointing decline.

The steady growth of exports still brings some surprises to the industry as "walls and flowers bloom outside the wall." The decline in the share of foreign brands in China's excavator market also tells the world that the development of local excavator companies in China is still very developed. Great vitality.

According to data from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association Excavating Machinery Branch, 3209 sets of excavators were exported in the first three quarters, an increase of 63.39% year-on-year. Export sales have already surpassed last year's sales. Only from the data point of view, far more than total sales. The increase. Among them, 903 units were exported in the first quarter, an increase of 114.49% year-on-year; in the second quarter, 1,165 units were exported, an increase of 47.10% year-on-year; and 1,141 units were the third quarter, an increase of 21.9% year-on-year.

But what is even more gratifying is that changes in the market structure have quietly emerged, and foreign brands continue to give up market share in the “collective cofferdam” of domestic brands.

Among the 25 host manufacturers, there are 12 foreign host manufacturers, and the largest manufacturer is Komatsu (China) Investment Co., Ltd.. In the first three quarters, the top 15 sales of crawler excavating machinery manufacturers, there are 8 foreign brands, domestic There are 7 brands, and the "reaction to courtesy" has been formed.

From the market share of various brands that produce and sell excavator products in China, this trend is even more pronounced. Since February 2011, the monthly market share of domestic brand excavators has continued to rise slowly, and the domestic brand excavator market share reached 44.74% in September. The share of European and American brands slowly increased month by month, and the fluctuations were slow. The Korean brand share has been slowly picking up after experiencing a sharp decline in April and May, and it only broke through 18% in September; the Japanese brand appeared in February. After the increase, it has been in a downward trend and fell to 23.27% in September.

According to the statistical data of the excavating machinery branch, foreign brands accounted for 62.20% of the total sales in the first three quarters of 2011, a decrease of 12.67% compared with the same period of last year, of which the Japanese brands declined the most, reaching 7.28%; the Korean brands decreased by 6.3%. The European and American brands did not change significantly over the previous year and only increased by 0.91%.

In stark contrast to the sharp decline in the share of foreign brands, the gradual rise of domestic brands has increased the domestic market share of excavators by 12.67% over the same period of last year, reaching 37.80%.

It is the king who can quickly return to reason and calm after creating the greatness of the common.

There is always time in the world, and no one can ignore the existence of the law. Just like a dynasty, if you say that the “Golden Ten Years” is a decade when it expands its soil and establishes its meritorious service, then what we need to do next is not to enjoy the prosperity that is already readily available, not to mourn the glory years gone by, but to learn to endure it. There is no turbulent calm. Learn to solidify the foundations of the dynasty in peace and learn to accumulate successes and failures in lessons and experiences in order to create a continuous "spirit."

Judging from China's excavator industry, there is still a lot of work to be done. Technological upgrades, the full autonomy of key components, the rational allocation of funds, and the constant establishment of industry norms are all promising areas.

Zeng Guang'an stated that during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, industrial upgrading and structural adjustment will be the main national policy for accelerating the transformation of China’s industrial economic development mode. According to the historical experience of developed countries, industrial upgrading is the main proposition for the development of construction machinery manufacturing industry in the middle and late industrialization period. The future development of China's mining machinery manufacturing industry should follow the same trajectory.

Li Hongbao also expects that the Chinese mining machinery market will shift from rapid growth to stable, sustainable, and quality growth in the next three years. It is expected that sales will reach 180,000 units in 2012, basically the same as in 2011, and the average annual growth rate in 2013 and 2014. Will be expected to exceed 10%.

The road ahead is long, but the light of hope is still there.