Looking back at 2014, China once again won the title of the world's auto market, and at the same time it is at the forefront of the era of change; foot 2015, how will the future auto market be? On January 6, 2015, the “2015 China Auto Phoenix Forum†hosted by Phoenix Motors with the theme of “Listening to Respect and Change†was successfully concluded in Beijing. This forum has received great attention from major auto manufacturers. Along with the deep reform of the automobile industry and the deep adjustment of the automobile market, the multi-format and diversified Chinese automobile market sales service model is bound to lead a new round of market-oriented competition. Who is the subversive of the traditional automobile industry? We have been listening to where this power is. Faced with the new normal of the market, the innovation of the marketing model of the automobile industry has become a major issue for every automobile person. The many impacts brought by the changes are worthy of our industry's attention and thinking. The following is the speech of Zhang Hongzhong, director of the Communication Effect Laboratory of Beijing Normal University.
Zhang Hongzhong: Hello everyone, I am very happy to have this opportunity to share with you the scientific strategy of car brand marketing. I don't talk about a method as much as a car. I share from a methodological point of view how we look at the auto market, how to analyze what is happening in this auto market, how to grasp the development of this auto market, I want to go from three Aspects.
First, how do car brands migrate? We are now buying a car or buying a car twice. Is it possible for existing car owners to continue to buy existing brands or change brands? The migration of the brand has become a major battlefield in the automotive market. We have to change the car and change the car. The second car purchase is an important part of our brand migration. In Beijing or Shenzhen and Shanghai, the second car purchase accounted for more than 50%. The occupation of this market is very important. Here is an example of how we can grasp the brand's migration.
This is the data our team made in July 2014. We have done German, Japanese, and independent brands. How do these brands migrate? When the German car migrated, 53.1% of the people would continue to buy it, which is its loyal brand. Others have not decided to decide 40%, choose 3.1% of their own brands, choose the other 3.1%. The overall loyalty of German cars is relatively high, much higher than our Japanese cars, and much higher than their own brands. This is the car line. The car is too general, can you be more detailed.
Let's look at how to grasp the changes in the car system. We choose a Volkswagen. This is a data collected from the Internet. When the Volkswagen brand comes out, what brand will be bought when buying a car twice? 45.5% continue to choose the public, and 17.7% will choose Ford. Undetermined is 9.4%, Hyundai 3.7%, Toyota 3.5%, Mercedes 3.1%, Buick 2.8%, BMW 4.5%, and almost most of them are selected on the same brand. There is a problem here, we need to further understand what this market is.
Ford is our biggest competitor, for the Volkswagen brand. For the brand, how can the biggest competitors grasp, who goes to Ford, who continues to buy the public, who is the loyal car buyer, let us look further. If the gender of the Volkswagen owner who migrated to Ford is male, it is male. 72.1% are male, 60% of the large loyal owners are male, and the migration from the public to Ford is a male group. Second, we look at the age, the average owner will migrate to Ford is 32 years old, the loyal owner is 34 years old. What is important? There are 44.2% between the ages of 21 and 30. The younger part of the Volkswagen owners is moving to Ford. This is the group we want to grasp.
Further, we look at education. The education is very obvious. Our high school part moved to Ford was 49.1%, and the remaining loyal owners were 23.4%. The whole is a younger, higher-educated group, and the owners of the public will migrate. From the structural characteristics of the population, we need to grasp who is the target of this migration, how many people migrate, who is our opponent, where to move, and we must grasp it methodologically.
Second, we are grasping what group, what group of people will they grasp? This is their group, and different groups have different contacts. Let us look at the proportion of migration in each region of the country. The part of the population we moved out of Beijing is 42.6%, the move to Ford is 7.7%, the Volkswagen is in Shandong, Ford is 10.2%, and the loyal is 48.3% in each region. Its migration is different. There may be some provinces in the northeast, my public loyal car owners may reach 80%, and in Guangdong may be 40%. We need to have this way to grasp it.
Who is likely to buy our brand, our data is the same data, such data, we take Toyota as an example, who will buy Toyota, Volkswagen is 14.1%, Hyundai is 7%, Ford 5.2 %, Nissan 4.6%, Honda 4.6%, Kia 3.3%, and other brands flow to Toyota. When I cut into Toyota, what kind of person is there, for example, Hyundai, taking it as an example, what kind of characteristics of modern population moving into Toyota's population structure. Men and women are basically equal, accounting for 36.9% under the age of 30, with the university's education as the main body, which is the group of modern car owners flowing into Toyota.
Third, the regional differences. The difference between Beijing and Shandong, Beijing moved to Toyota, accounting for 23%, and Shandong is the same. However, modern migration to Toyota is 14.8%, and in modern China, it is 4.7%. This difference is very large. Ford moved to Toyota 7% in Shandong, which is very low in Beijing. This is the flow of our car brand, who is the brand to whom, and whose brand flows to me, this is the great change behind our market. In our country, the flow of this brand is very frequent.
I went to the United States in 2010, and a friend said that I would sell a car. My friend said that I would introduce you to a car. This person’s car has been in the car for 20 years. I said that the car can be opened for 20 years. The frequency of brand replacement is very high. . And under the conditions of purchase restrictions, the frequency of our replacement is getting higher and higher. Under such circumstances, we grasp the flow between brands, move in and out, what is the difference between each region, and what brand is used in their main group structure. . These are the prerequisites for us to truly master a method and accurately grasp the market. This is the first question.
The second question is how to grasp the timing of online car purchases? Online shopping is particularly popular. How do we judge online shopping? We say e-commerce, to what extent has e-commerce been? We use the real way to judge and evaluate. I want to introduce a model, which is the theoretical model of innovation diffusion. In 1962, a famous communication scientist named Rogers, a very powerful scholar, wrote a book "Innovation Diffusion" mainly for South America and New Mexico, how can a new technology spread rapidly? It is how to use and accept quickly. Later, a use of new products and technologies was derived from how it spread throughout society. Rogers drew the S curve. The curve is divided into four stages. 2.5% of the people are in the introduction period, 13.5% in the second stage is the early user, and the third is 34%. Most of the users are 34%. 50% is the late. There are four periods in the development of new product development technologies, including introduction period, growth period, maturity period and recession period.
What do we use in this curve? Let's look at the status of a new technology application such as e-commerce online car buying. What kind of state is in our car buyers? From two perspectives, the first is attitude and the second is behavioral will. We did a survey, you do not recognize whether you have the will, this data is not important, the data itself does not make much sense. We can't explain it, we only have to explain it on a theoretical level.
First, we put it on the curve of innovation diffusion. On the S-curve, the recognized attitude of car buyers, the attitude of recognizing online car purchase is 61.6%, which is in a mature zone. Everyone has no objection to the online car purchase, no doubt, and the attitude has been recognized.
Second, we will further look at the attitude of recognition, attitude to behavior there is still a gap. The actual willingness to act is only 9.7%, which means that during the growth period, it has not yet fully entered the stage of popularization. Only 9.7% of car buyers have this willingness. This is when we buy cars online now. In the early stage of rapid development, once it reaches 16%, this is the turning point, which is the rapid growth period. This is the basic status of our online car purchase. We use the model of innovation diffusion to see that there is an important problem. From the perspective of e-commerce, from each car manufacturer, we have a new car product, how do you apply it to car products, how are you in society? Inside, you are a new technology, a new product, how the product itself spreads, how to grasp its diffusion curve, who is using it at every stage, how to use it every time, how can it be used? Use this curve to do it.
In every province of the country, the spread is not the same. The online car purchase in Guangdong is the highest, reaching 13.4%, Sichuan is 3.8%, Gansu Ningxia is still in the period of entry, and Guangdong has reached the growth period. This is the imbalance of regional development. These are all decisions that can be made with a very scientific quantitative model.
Microsoft research institutes do a system called bing system. I said that this system is not a technical issue. It is a market issue, a market diffusion problem, and a technology diffusion application problem. They often let me do blind testing for Google, global PK, to see who is accurate. I said that we can't play blind tests, 99 and 98 can't feel it, and more are market problems. How do you grasp the market and grasp the inertia of an audience's mind to break its existing inertia? This is the most important thing. This is the theory of innovation diffusion ideas.
Third, how is the effect of brand communication measured? This is also an issue of opposition. We have done a lot of brand communication, how do we measure its effect, and recently there is an article saying that a lot of advertising and public relations by automakers is wasted, and how much is wasted, we don't know. We do not know how many parts produce the effect. There is a problem here, how do we scientifically grasp the effects of our communication.
1. We have to do a communication strategy, communication program, and we have at least one theoretical model. We must have a basic theoretical presupposition, only based on the theory, our data, our interpretation is scientific. It's not enough to take a percentage, or take a click, it's not enough to explain. We all said that all people rated my program 80 points, this is a mistake. The real effect evaluation requires a theoretical model, not a white coat is a nurse, what is a theoretical model.
When we want to produce an effect, from the degree of attention, word of mouth, purchase intention, and then predict the purchase intention of the car, we have to have this model to predict our effect, our detection is effective. At what level do we do it, and to what extent we are in the vertical direction, so that our effect is guaranteed.
2. Scientific issues of data. We now have a lot of data in the auto industry, and there is a lot of data all day long. The scientific nature of this data is extremely important. Many of our consulting circles and public relations circles lack the literacy of basic scientific data. Our data is not about big and small, but about how you came. How do you get your data is important, let me tell a simple story. The story of "Literature Digest" was issued 20 million copies before the United States in 1936, when they made a prediction to predict who was president, Roosevelt and Langdon. They wrote letters from readers and received 2.4 million letters from readers. They predicted that Langdon would win. At that time, a young man made a questionnaire, predicting that Roosevelt, Roosevelt 58%, the two results are completely opposite, and one is 2.4 million, you believe that 2.4 million or 2,000 people, and finally "Literature Digest" is completely wrong . The basis of statistics is coming. This is the difference between science and non-science. I especially appeal to the scientific nature of our data not because of the amount of data, but because of the scientific nature of the data, otherwise you will make the same mistakes for our market. It is a misleading.
3. The level of measurement. We can't replace all the effects with one level. Whether we are at the level of cognition or emotion, or at the level of attitude, the effect is different. For example, the geographical distribution of Chevrolet, this is the mood of the lottery, 60% is angry, and 9.4% is disgusting. This is the change of Chery's emotions. It is green. The changes in our online emotions are measured at different levels. We evaluate our effects on the cognitive level, the emotional level, and the level of attitude and behavior. . The data at each level cannot be replaced by each other, so it is a three-dimensional evaluation to examine our effects.
4. The actual value behind the numbers. We have to see how much data can be produced. Many of our data differences are very large, and the data is very large. In fact, the effect of the data is different. We can get every point out of the point where Volkswagen imports the car blue. This is Weibo. Each blue dot represents a person, what is indicated, a non-authenticated account, and a red dot indicates an authentication account. The real forwarding is only one car fun museum and global sports reviews, the red part is very few, the water army is a lot. Now it's better to form a second forward, and it's still effective.
BMW China and Audi, this is also a small amount, Audi has a certain forwarding, but it is also mainly blue, this effect of its data is not necessarily effective. For example, Changan Mazda, many of them are water army, there is no secondary forwarding, we have to eliminate it, we should not be blinded by data. Mazda is typically a water army. This is a big problem. The data will blind us a lot. How do we look at the data scientifically and look at the data accurately? This is why I want to tell you the methodology today: First, how do we grasp the market, grasp the flow of the brand, and use scientific methods. Second, how do we judge the changes in the market, taking e-commerce as an example, how to use online models to judge how far this market has reached. Third, how to look at this data, how to measure the effect, we are three-dimensional measurement, and do not be blinded by the data, this is what I share with you today, thank you.
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