For the first time in ten years, the supply and demand for imported cars have dropped. In January-February, both imported channels and customs imports declined significantly, and the overall market fell by 19%.
This year, the depth of imported cars is even higher than in 2012, and the adjustment time is expected to be longer than the 6-9 months. Therefore, 2015 should be a veritable adjustment of imported car inventory, and there may be 'de-stocking' throughout the year. This is a very serious topic.
In January, the parallel imports of data, that is, the proportion of data imported by customs also showed a downward trend. "The price is almost the same, you do not have the advantage of parallel imports, so from the perspective of the number and size of parallel imports, this year will not be higher than last year," Wang Cun said.
In 2015, the imported car market faced great challenges. According to Wang Cun, senior manager of the marketing department of SINOMACH Co., Ltd.: The current situation facing the market is “the most severe moment in historyâ€. Imports of imported vehicles in January-February, both in terms of channel supply and customs imports, have seen a significant decline.
"This is the first time I have seen the automotive industry in more than a decade, that is, both supply and demand have fallen." This week, Wang Cun told the China Economic Net reporter. In 2012, there was a decline in supply of more than 20% in six months, but the demand at that time was basically stable. The current market dilemma requires multinational companies to have more tips and understandings, and to adjust the supply to make it more balanced.
From the data point of view, the sales side in January showed a year-on-year decline of more than 20%; in February due to the Spring Festival holiday factor, sales have not recovered. But compared with last year's Spring Festival, this year's decline is even greater. In January-February, the overall market fell by 19%. "This is quite large," Wang Cun thinks.
From a supply perspective, customs imports fell 13% in January, and the final data in February has not yet come out, probably about 60,000 vehicles, down more than 20% from last year's 80,000 vehicles. At present, market structure adjustment is still needed, but it is difficult to see results in the short term. "From the historical experience of 2012, the inventory digest caused by high supply may take 6-9 months, and this year's inventory depth is higher than 2012, so the adjustment is expected to be longer than this time." Wang Cun Said, "So, this year should be a veritable adjustment of the inventory of imported cars, which may run through the year's 'destocking', which is a very serious topic."
From the perspective of demand, facing the slowdown of the overall economic growth rate, as the Chinese economy enters the "new normal", the GDP growth rate of 7% has gradually become the consensus of everyone. For the real economy, especially when doing business, it will be found that the economy is more difficult and the market demand for high-end cars will be significantly affected. "If there is a recovery in the second quarter, I think it is a good change."
When talking about the hottest "parallel import of Shanghai Free Trade Zone", Wang Cun said: Regardless of the exposure of the media, or the experts' opinions are more and more popular, but "still to look at it calmly." According to the data of parallel imports in January, the proportion of data imported by customs also showed a downward trend.
“The scale of 100,000 parallel imports last year was about 7 percent compared to the 1.4 million imported cars last year, and the source of the car is gradually being controlled. Because multinational companies understand the parallel import of 'sunshine', Both take control of transnational or regional markets in each country, which will have some impact on parallel imports." Wang Cun said.
When talking about the issue of parallel imports, he believes that on the one hand, the brand management measures are being adjusted, on the other hand, imports from the United States or major neighboring countries are not allowed to be sold in the Chinese market if they are registered vehicles. In January, the Japanese brand imported cars from the Middle East accounted for more than 80% of the total, so it will affect the import of US-standard cars.
“Even if Toyota may be the main force of parallel imports, it should be noted that the Prado 2700 has been confirmed to be domestically produced. It will be listed in March, and the pricing is relatively low. The manual transmission model may be 360,000 yuan, and the automatic transmission model is about 380,000 yuan. The highest allocation is estimated at 420,000 yuan, and the prices of basic and parallel imports are similar." Wang Cun said, "The price is similar, you do not have the advantage of parallel imports, so from the parallel import quantity and scale, this year will not be better than last year. high."
In the 17 pilot enterprises announced by the Free Trade Zone, from the perspective of mastering the vehicle source, there may be only one trading company in Tianjin, and other companies are more new entrants, both in the sellers and in the distributor resources, on the entire chain. "It is inexperienced."
“The market in the Free Trade Zone looks very hot, but once the parallel imports fall in 2015, everyone will lose. There must be a clear understanding that parallel imported cars are not so hot.†​​Wang Cun said.
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