When interviewed by this reporter, China Rubber Association chief Fan Rende said that now the industry has reached an inflection point. Affected by such factors as soaring raw material prices, the overall economic operation of the industry has encountered unprecedented difficulties since the end of the third quarter of this year, and the industry’s profits have experienced negative growth for three consecutive months. He believes that in the long run, the two major trends of increasing natural rubber prices and the depreciation of the US dollar against the renminbi have become irreversible, coupled with increasing international trade frictions, and simply relying on changes in corporate concepts and development models and adjustments in development strategies. It is difficult to digest and absorb the effects of many unfavorable factors.
Executive Vice President and Secretary-General of the China Rubber Association Deng Yachen introduced that after mid-October of this year, the price of natural rubber suddenly rose continuously and the price was always above 30,000 yuan. Some people uplifted prices and took the opportunity to hype. The price of natural rubber has seriously deviated from the value. . Before the financial crisis, the highest rubber price was only 28,000 yuan, and now the rubber price has entered the era of 30,000 yuan. According to the statistics of the association, the profits of key tire companies have dropped rapidly. In the first half of this year, the profits dropped by 9.4% year-on-year, and the year-on-year decline in the third quarter soared to 21.4%. Among the 43 member companies, 11 suffered losses and reached a loss of 26%. Moreover, before September, companies used natural rubber for production to basically buy before prices skyrocketed, and the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year will be even less optimistic.
"The actual situation may be more severe than the report reflects." Cao Chaoyang, general manager of China National Chemicals and Rubber Corporation, said, "Last year, our natural rubber purchase price was slightly higher than $2,100, accounting for 42% of the company's costs. Based on this, The price of natural rubber rose by 50%, and the total cost rose by 20%. Now that the rubber price has more than doubled, the rate of tire price increase is far behind the speed of rubber price increase."
Shen Jinrong, chairman of Hangzhou Zhongce Rubber Co., Ltd., said: “The price of rubber fell by 2,000 yuan on November 12th, giving everyone the impression that the tires should not rise in price. The price of goods fell by 6% on November 15. The rubber price is still above 32,000 yuan. In October, the net cost of natural rubber for tire companies in China was around 26,000 yuan, and the report was already difficult to read. In November, the net cost of natural rubber for tire companies was estimated at 28,000 yuan, even if natural The price of rubber fell to 30,000 yuan, and the overall efficiency would be extremely poor. At the same time, the price of natural rubber will drastically increase the price of synthetic rubber. As rubber prices continue to rise, the operating rate of tire companies will also be high. influences."
Shen Jinrong said: “Dealers generally report that the off-season sales season for tires has arrived. The dealer’s funds and warehouses are limited. Once the inventory is closed, or if there is a little bit of information that is allergic to people, the entire fundamentals will It will decline, the market is not optimistic, and the extent of tire price adjustment is still far from reflecting the skyrocketing situation of natural rubber. All tire market companies and distributors are cautious."
"Companies that don't make money must 'circle', and if they don't 'circle', they will be dead." Cao Chaoyang said, "From the financial point of view, the CPI keeps rising. After the country raises the reserve interest rate and raises interest rates, the loan is issued. With tightening, tight corporate finances, and excessive liquidity, a large amount of hot money began to fry futures and pushed up the price of plastics. From the cost point of view, the price of natural rubber is so crazy that cost pressures will gradually show up gradually.From the international environment Look, the international economic recovery is still very fragile, the impact of exchange rate changes and international trade war is increasing, and the pressure on exports has increased significantly. The follow-up situation of tire companies is quite severe!"
According to Cai Weimin, secretary-general of the Rubber Association of China Rubber Association, according to the statistics of the 45 member companies of the Tire Division, all indicators have fallen significantly in September. Among them, the growth rate of industrial output value decreased by 3.8 percentage points from August, and the output of comprehensive tires dropped by 4.6 percentage points. In September, the output value and output both showed negative growth, and the output decreased by 18.66% compared with the previous month. Statistics from 43 companies show that from January to September, the cost of finished tires increased by 30%, far higher than the increase in output value.
According to the representatives of the participating companies, there has been an embarrassing situation where more and more losses have started. They appealed that, in addition to enterprises raising product prices, strengthening management and grasping internal and external sales, choosing alternative raw materials, and joint procurement to reduce costs, the state should strengthen the supervision of natural rubber futures, and put the State Reserve's natural rubber as soon as possible, cancel the import of natural rubber tariff.
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