On August 24, U.S. crude oil futures prices fell below the US$73 per barrel in Asian electronic trading, and have fallen for five consecutive trading days. The U.S. Energy Information Association has said to the oil market that countries such as China and India will have stronger demand growth, which will help the U.S. domestic oil stocks decline from high levels and boost oil prices.
However, the drop in international oil prices was after China published crude oil import data. In July, China imported 19 million tons of crude oil. From the data, it is estimated that the total domestic crude oil imports in the first 7 months have soared by 24.21%, reaching 139.6 million tons. At the same time, imports of 2.78 million tons of refined oil in July were higher than the 2.54 million tons in the previous month. In the emerging market, which was seen by the market as the mainstay of international oil prices last year, especially the oil consumption in the Chinese market, the support for international oil prices this year is obviously limited.
Analysts pointed out that this is due to the fact that domestic crude oil demand is slowing down. On the other hand, international crude oil is more sensitive to the macro economy, and economic uncertainty has impaired the momentum of rising crude oil.
Zhuo Chuang Information Oil analyst Lu Bin said in an interview with the “International Financial News†reporter: “In the first 7 months, the domestic refinery operating rate is relatively high, and the basic full-scale production capacity of the refinery production leads to higher crude oil imports in the first half of the year. The main reason.†However, he pointed out that in fact, oil imports in July have already declined, which is a turning point in the year.
China’s imports of crude oil in July fell by 15% from the previous month, and dropped significantly from 22.27 million tons in June to 19 million tons, which was also lower than the 19.6 million tons imported in the same period of last year. Lu Bin pointed out: "In July, refineries began to stop production and maintenance, and this partial production cut will continue into August, so the phased low of imports will appear in mid-August."
On August 23, the “China Xinhua 08 System†data released by China Petroleum in July showed that at the end of July, China’s crude oil inventories (excluding reserves) were 29.2 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons from the end of June and a 1.3% increase compared with the previous month. Rising stocks are indicating that demand is slowing down.
In addition, Lu Bin believes that current oil prices are more sensitive to the macro economy than to demand.
Li Zhoulei, a mid-term analyst in Shanghai, pointed out to reporters: “Actually, without China’s demand support, international oil prices will not fluctuate between 70 and 80 US dollars. Now that the slowdown in China’s economic growth has been confirmed, and further economic restructuring is still underway, There is no sign of relaxation in the regulation of the property market, and external forecasts predict that China's economic growth will continue to slow in the third and fourth quarters. This eliminates the need for the market to stimulate China's demand to stimulate crude oil prices."
Liu Xin, an analyst at Haizheng Futures, also stated: “The international oil price is expected to move to the next level in the second half of the year. It will consolidate between US$65 and US$75 per barrel. If the economic data declines faster than expected, it may even reach US$60 per barrel. â€
However, the drop in international oil prices was after China published crude oil import data. In July, China imported 19 million tons of crude oil. From the data, it is estimated that the total domestic crude oil imports in the first 7 months have soared by 24.21%, reaching 139.6 million tons. At the same time, imports of 2.78 million tons of refined oil in July were higher than the 2.54 million tons in the previous month. In the emerging market, which was seen by the market as the mainstay of international oil prices last year, especially the oil consumption in the Chinese market, the support for international oil prices this year is obviously limited.
Analysts pointed out that this is due to the fact that domestic crude oil demand is slowing down. On the other hand, international crude oil is more sensitive to the macro economy, and economic uncertainty has impaired the momentum of rising crude oil.
Zhuo Chuang Information Oil analyst Lu Bin said in an interview with the “International Financial News†reporter: “In the first 7 months, the domestic refinery operating rate is relatively high, and the basic full-scale production capacity of the refinery production leads to higher crude oil imports in the first half of the year. The main reason.†However, he pointed out that in fact, oil imports in July have already declined, which is a turning point in the year.
China’s imports of crude oil in July fell by 15% from the previous month, and dropped significantly from 22.27 million tons in June to 19 million tons, which was also lower than the 19.6 million tons imported in the same period of last year. Lu Bin pointed out: "In July, refineries began to stop production and maintenance, and this partial production cut will continue into August, so the phased low of imports will appear in mid-August."
On August 23, the “China Xinhua 08 System†data released by China Petroleum in July showed that at the end of July, China’s crude oil inventories (excluding reserves) were 29.2 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons from the end of June and a 1.3% increase compared with the previous month. Rising stocks are indicating that demand is slowing down.
In addition, Lu Bin believes that current oil prices are more sensitive to the macro economy than to demand.
Li Zhoulei, a mid-term analyst in Shanghai, pointed out to reporters: “Actually, without China’s demand support, international oil prices will not fluctuate between 70 and 80 US dollars. Now that the slowdown in China’s economic growth has been confirmed, and further economic restructuring is still underway, There is no sign of relaxation in the regulation of the property market, and external forecasts predict that China's economic growth will continue to slow in the third and fourth quarters. This eliminates the need for the market to stimulate China's demand to stimulate crude oil prices."
Liu Xin, an analyst at Haizheng Futures, also stated: “The international oil price is expected to move to the next level in the second half of the year. It will consolidate between US$65 and US$75 per barrel. If the economic data declines faster than expected, it may even reach US$60 per barrel. â€
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