In recent years, due to the booming demand in the tire market, many tire companies, including foreign-funded companies, are expanding their production on a large scale, or new tire projects. How many tire companies in the country are currently involved in large-scale projects, no one can speak clearly. Tire branch will have a rough statistics, the first three quarters of 2009, the national rubber industry (mainly tires) investment increased by 29.6%. It is understood that some of the projects are roughly estimated that half-steel tire production capacity will increase by more than 30 million in 2010, and all-steel tire production capacity will increase by more than 10 million.
Overcapacity issues have emerged
Some people in the industry think that there is no surplus of tire production capacity. This view is based on the stability of the export market. They think that the foreign market is so good. Why don't we occupy it? It is also investing abroad. Do you let other people occupy? The market should have a certain forward-looking nature, and a surplus of 20% of production capacity should be regarded as a normal performance. Otherwise, the demand will increase and we will not be able to afford losses.
People who believe that tires have excess capacity believe that setting a 40% share of the tire market in a highly competitive export market is a sign of excess; it is difficult for domestic tire prices to escalate, which is also an excess performance; R&D Insufficient investment, product homogeneity is serious, or the performance of excess; non-"three guarantees" tires have a market, it is a fierce competitive performance.
Ni Jieren said: “According to the situation in 2009, the production capacity should not be left over, because the operating rate of enterprises is very high. Everyone is optimistic that in 2010, there is the idea of ​​expanding production, but if all these production capacity are likely to be excessive However, each factory is very confident and believes that its tires can be sold. If it is really unlimited, it will result in large production capacity, intensified competition, and lower profits. Sales in 2010 will be more difficult."
Cao Chaoyang believes that investment in the tire industry has continued unabated during the new century. A few years ago, it was a hot tire load. In 2007, it started to have car tyres hot, and there was also a hot giant tire in the middle. Investing is blind and I look at what you are. "Industry input and output should be at least 1:2, but now the industry's profit rate is so low, how much can the company's earnings? Now companies are repaying loans, companies only pay bank interest, this bubble no one to break through. Once the country's monetary retrenchment occurs, the problem will come immediately. The biggest risk for the company is the capital chain issue."
The Honorary Chairman of the China Rubber Association, Geng Hongzhen, said that over the years, the tire industry has formed a rule that if the market is good, everyone will invest, regardless of whether or not they want to dry tires. He believes that the key issue of overcapacity is the prominent structural contradiction, manifested in the lack of capacity for new products and the repeated low-level construction of small enterprises. The low rolling resistance, environmental protection and safety tires that are currently required by the market have only been developed by very few domestic-funded companies, let alone production. Therefore, enterprises should speed up the development of marketable products, and the state should also support promising tire manufacturers to actively develop new products and improve product lines.
Zhang Wanyou, deputy general manager of Shuangqin Group Corporation, believes that the overcapacity of the tire industry is manifested in that on the one hand, each production company obviously feels that the market is not in sufficient demand, showing wave-like fluctuations; on the other hand, with the improvement of market subdivision requirements and new models The introduction of the market demand for high-quality, cost-effective and adapt to a specific model, a specific market tires difficult to obtain a single child, lack of supply. Excessive overcapacity in form is essentially a surplus of the total amount. The intension of the development of the tire industry can not keep up with the internal demand of the market, which is the root cause of overcapacity.
Cai Weimin, secretary general of the tire division, said that whether or not the production capacity is surplus is a dynamic concept. When the demand for tires at home and abroad continues to increase, increasing investment and adding new production capacity will not result in excessive production capacity. At present, the main reasons for the excessive production capacity of China's tires are as follows: First, the global financial crisis has affected the demand for tires, and tire exports have fallen sharply. Second, there are too many tire companies in China and there are too many low-level duplicated constructions. Third, there is insufficient tire technology and product quality. Lower, not competitive in domestic and foreign markets.
Fan Rende believes that the excess production capacity of tires is a potential problem. Due to changes in the world economic landscape, especially after the financial crisis, the issue has become more prominent. At present, many of the new tires on the banner of the project are technological transformation, structural adjustment, energy conservation and environmental protection, but it is difficult to be true, which will further increase the problem of excess capacity. “Our situation is not as serious as steel, cement and other industries, but it is not timely reminded that the development will continue to be very serious. The expansion of domestic demand is definitely a direction in the future. Even if domestic demand increases, we must also control the blind expansion of production capacity.â€
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