Car stocks rise or short-lived short-term will not be explosive growth

Yesterday, the auto stocks rose somewhat. Dongfeng Motors, Jianghuai Automobiles, Jinlong Automobiles, Haima Motors, Foton Motors, and Great Wall Motors rose more than 2%. On Monday, car stocks rose sharply on positive stimulus.

On February 24, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the “2012 Catalogue of Selected Vehicles for Official Vehicles of the Party and Government Organs,” and solicited opinions from the entire society. According to the catalog, the official models used in this official car are all domestic cars, and none of the foreign and joint venture models have been selected. In addition, five electric vehicles were selected as official models. When the news came out, car stocks rose.

Zhao Chenyu, a senior analyst at Haitong Securities Automotive Industry, said that all the models listed in the bus procurement catalogue are self-owned brands, which helps to stabilize the market share of the independent brands, but the greater role is to improve the low-end auto brands. The image of the market is positive for the self-owned brand depots.

However, Ping An Securities auto industry analyst Wang Dean said in a research report that this will benefit the high-end models of self-owned brands, but the impact on joint ventures will not be too great. Wang Dean believes that the self-owned brand of mid-to-high-end vehicles with a capacity of 1.5L or above will be the competitive model for the low-end model of the joint venture. The exit of the joint-venture brand model will bring opportunities to the high-end brands. As the existing general-purpose official vehicles and law-enforcement vehicles have gradually adopted a large number of self-owned brand models, there will not be an explosive growth in self-owned brand models.

In addition, Wang Dean stated that under the dual background of pre-digestive policies to stimulate overdrafts and economic slowdown expectations, self-owned brand car companies have entered difficult times, market share has declined since 2011, plus capacity expansion in previous years, many independent Car prices are bitterly cold waiting for the spring breeze. The official car procurement catalog is conducive to the replacement of part of the low-end, middle- and high-end models owned by self-owned high-end models, but this is more of an encouragement and "demonstration" stance by the government for autonomous car companies, and will not promote the outbreak of autonomous car companies in the short term. Growth.

A private equity fund person in Shanghai told reporters that the general increase in car stocks may be a flash in the pan. Before the policy effect is revealed, the market will favor new energy car stocks with more themes.

Huabao Securities analyst Wang Guangju said that according to the "new energy vehicle development plan" draft, by 2015, the proportion of new energy vehicle procurement shall not be less than 10%, is expected to bring about 8 billion yuan market space. Official vehicles are financed by the government and will support the development of the entire new energy automobile industry.