Although the micro-growth trend of the auto market has been established, the impulse of expansion of auto companies remains undiminished, and they have been expanding their production capacity. Industry insiders predict that by 2016, the idle capacity of the automobile will increase to 9 million, and the “overcapacity” alarm has already begun.

American and German-based joint-venture car companies are at the forefront of building domestic auto companies and are still accelerating their expansion. GM plans to add four more factories from this year to 2015. By then, General Motors' total production capacity in China will increase by 30% to about 5 million vehicles/year. Volkswagen is also an active participant in the arms production warfare. Volkswagen plans to increase its production capacity in China to 4 million by 2018. It is understood that Shanghai Volkswagen's seventh plant in Xinjiang and the eighth plant in Changsha, Hunan are currently starting or preparing to start.

In fact, starting from last year, a number of car companies have started capacity expansion plans. In 2012, Ford also released its aggressive production capacity expansion strategy in China. Changan Ford's Chongqing plant also expanded its production capacity to 350,000 vehicles. At the same time, its Hangzhou plant broke ground and was planned to produce 250,000 vehicles a year; Beijing Hyundai Third Factory The production capacity was 400,000 units. Dongfeng Nissan and Dongfeng Yueda Kia announced the foundation of the Dalian plant and the Yancheng third plant. The third production line of Guangben has also been put into construction. It is expected to be completed and put into production in 2014...

Chen Bin, Director of the Industry Coordination Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, once stated at the "International Forum for China's Automobile Industry Development" that the planning productivity of the local auto industry for 2015 at the local level has far exceeded the planning of 30 major domestic automobile enterprises with 31.24 million capacity in 2015. The numbers show signs of overcapacity.

According to the previous forecast of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, by 2015, the domestic automobile production capacity will exceed 25 million vehicles. Today, according to the current planning of car companies, this figure has soared to 40 million.

According to KPMG's “2012 global auto industry executives survey report”, China’s auto idle capacity reached 6 million vehicles in 2011, which is equivalent to twice the size of the German auto market. It is expected that by 2016, idle capacity will increase. To 9 million vehicles.

Sun Shiqing, an analyst in the automotive industry, believes that on the one hand, the expansion is due to the eagerness of car companies, especially multinational car companies, to release the signal of “value to the Chinese market”. On the other hand, it is warning that competitors must seize market share in advance.

In the circulation field, it also shows the hidden dangers of capacity expansion. The automobile inventory warning index released by the China Automobile Dealers Association shows that in April of this year, the Chinese automobile dealer stocks early warning index was 50.35%, and the inventory risk still exceeded the warning level.



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