At the 2015 China Artificial Intelligence Conference, Tan Tielian, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the deputy director of the China Artificial Intelligence Society, said: "The development of artificial intelligence technology will have a major disruptive impact on traditional industries, and 'Smart +X' will become an innovative fashion. Will be widely used in defense, medical, industrial, agricultural, financial, commercial, education, public safety and other fields, triggering profound changes in the industrial structure."

In fact, the artificial intelligence industry has received unprecedented attention. In March 2015, the government work report put forward the “Made in China 2025” strategic plan; on May 19, the State Council officially issued “Made in China 2025”, specifying smart manufacturing as the main attack direction; on July 1st, the State Council issued “About the Active Promotion”. The Internet's "Guidelines for Action" listed "Internet artificial intelligence" as one of the 11 key actions. From November to November, the "13th Five-Year Plan for Development of the Robot Industry" draft has been basically formulated and completed. "Made in China 2025 "The key areas of technology roadmap together constitute a blueprint for the development of China's robot industry.

"Made in China" is spawning massive demand. Nowadays, the rapid development of China's industrial robotics industry has become the most important market for industrial robots worldwide, accounting for more than 20% of global demand. The International Robot Association predicts that in 2017 China's industrial robot sales will reach around 100,000 units, accounting for about 35% of the global market share.

Although China has a huge market demand, compared with foreign markets, China's artificial intelligence technology research and industrial applications are still in the early stages of development. Minsheng Securities researchers pointed out from the application field that foreign companies mainly produce robots with high value and their application areas are relatively concentrated (cars account for 50%), while domestic robots are mainly used in areas with lower performance requirements, and the value is generally low. . "China's robotic industrial chain is still not perfect. There is no domestic core component company capable of providing scaled and reliable performance, such as speed reducers, and the ontology core technology has been monopolized by foreign capital."

Policy Overlay Arrangement The artificial intelligence artificial intelligence concept was proposed in 1956 and has undergone evolution for nearly 60 years. It has evolved from single-function devices to general-purpose devices, from single scenes to complex scenes, from simple behaviors to complex behaviors.

At this stage, artificial intelligence products are still merely tools for assisting human work. They are often represented by upgraded versions of traditional equipment such as smart/driverless cars, sweeping robots, and medical robots. In the future, with the development of technologies such as science and technology, intelligent robots that simulate human thinking patterns and perform various tasks in various environments will emerge.

It is understood that China's independent intellectual property rights in the text recognition, voice recognition, Chinese information processing, intelligent monitoring, biometrics, industrial robots, service robots, driverless cars and other intelligent scientific and technological achievements have entered a wide range of practical applications. Based on this, China has introduced a large number of policies to support the development of artificial intelligence.

A series of policies depict the roadmap for the development of China's robot industry. By 2020, the annual sales volume of industrial robots in China will reach 150,000 units and the number of possessions will reach 800,000 units, which will be 400,000 units more than the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan. By 2025, the annual sales volume of industrial robots will reach 260,000 units and the number of possessions will reach 1.8 million units, an increase of 1.4 million units from the end of the “Twelfth Five-year Plan” period.

At the “2015 World Robot Conference”, Mao Weiming, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, pointed out that the “Made in China 2025” goal is to move from a manufacturing power to a manufacturing power, and its core is to seize the new heights of the international manufacturing competition. Its main measure is Deepening the deep integration of industrialization and informatization, the main direction is smart manufacturing, and robots, 3D printing, and smart factories are important support and support.

According to reports, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has carried out three important tasks for the robotics industry in 2015. First, it formulated the “13th Five-Year Plan” for the robot industry to guide the development of the industry; second, it actively sought related policies to support the development and application of robots; and the third was in key manufacturing fields. Promote robot applications. According to the industrial robot development target previously released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, by 2020, China will form a relatively complete system of industrial robots, foster 3-5 internationally competitive leading enterprises and 8-10 supporting industrial clusters; The rate has increased to more than 45%.

China’s robots are “pay-as-you-go” and “China-made 2025′′ Internet+” actions have made major demands on artificial intelligence technology. The development of smart industries and smart economy requires the continuous innovation of artificial intelligence technology.” Li Deyi, Chairman of the China Artificial Intelligence Society Indicated.

The majority of Chinese manufacturing companies are still in the early stage of automation. With the improvement of product quality requirements in the future, China's industrial manufacturing industry will also move toward intensive and intelligent industrial upgrading, and automation represented by industrial robots. The demand for equipment will be substantially released.

In this regard, all major organizations are basically optimistic about the needs of robots, and put forward a higher estimate of the value of the period.

According to the IFR survey, the annual growth rate of demand for global industrial robots from 2004 to 2014 reached 10%. Guoyuan Securities also expects that the relevant growth rate will increase to 16% in 2015-2020, and it will be in 2015-2020 in all regions of the world. China has the highest growth potential and is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 20%.

GF Securities Research reported that in the future China will form a 100 billion-level industrial robot market and a billion-dollar company. It is estimated that by 2020, China’s robot market will reach 200 billion yuan, and most of the demand will come from general manufacturing outside the automobile. Galaxy Securities also expressed a similar view, that the service giant will be expected to emerge giant leader.

With the gradual and large-scale use of robots by large and small-scale manufacturing companies in the future, the domestic industrial robot market will mature, and it is expected that there will be leading enterprises with a scale of RMB 10 billion. It is understood that many large companies are actively deploying, such as Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and HKUST, and traditional manufacturing companies such as BOE (000725.SZ), robot (300024.SZ), and Shenyang Machine Tool (000410. SZ), etc. are also making related layouts.

If robots open up the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, industrial robots have a rich product line, and they are expected to quickly seize the rapid release of demand in the areas of superior automotive and potential low-end productivity. Special robots, laser equipment and clean robots are becoming new growth. point. Regarding the advantages of the robot itself, Wang Yupeng, deputy general manager of Shenyang Xinsong Robot Intelligent Mobile Division, revealed to reporters: “Depending on the advantages of technology, price, and local service, Xinsong will occupy approximately 95% of the total market of Chinese autos.” With a market capitalization of RMB 510 billion, it ranks among the top three in the international industry. It is reported that two-thirds of Xinsong's products are used in foreign-funded foreign companies, and 23 export countries have changed the situation in which Chinese products are applied at low-end and it is difficult to go abroad.

In the field of medical robots, Boss shares (002698.SZ) are in the forefront. With the cooperation of Harbin Sizhe Rui and Suzhou Kangduo Robot, Bosch has invested in minimally invasive surgical robots and smart devices. Si Zerui Medical has long been engaged in the research and development of high-end surgical equipment and smart medical devices such as minimally invasive surgical robots (domestic Da Vinci robots) and serialized robotic surgical instruments, and is at the leading domestic technology level. Essence Securities pointed out that if the minimally invasive surgical robot developed by Spirent Medical R&D project can successfully achieve the planned success, it can cover more than ten surgical operations such as general surgery, thoracic surgery, urology, and gynecology. .

Artificial intelligence and robotics have also become the buoyant concepts in the capital market. For example, the dynamic price-earnings ratio of a robot is stable at 160 times or more, and the dynamic P/E ratio of automation equipment manufacturer Zhiyun (300097.SZ) is over 700 times. In the new three-plate market where VC and PE are active, the valuation of Tianzhihang (834360), which was just listed in November, reached RMB 3 billion within a week.

However, although China has become the world's largest industrial robot market, there is still a big gap from the developed countries in the world. In 2014, among the top five robot suppliers in the world, the density of robots in China was significantly lower than those in countries such as South Korea, Japan, Germany, and the United States. The penetration rate of robots is still at a relatively low level.

On December 9th, Luo Jun, chief executive officer of the International Robotics and Intelligent Equipment Industry Alliance pointed out: “In 2013, China became the largest market for robots worldwide and will continue to maintain this status for at least the next 30 years. However, there are more than 500 robots in China. Companies do not possess any advantage. The gap with foreign robotics companies is not narrowing but continues to increase."

Lu Tie, director of industrial development at the Institute of Industrial Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, once pointed out that industrial robots were used as an example to point out that most of the core components of precision robots such as precision reducers, controllers, servo systems, and high-performance drives currently rely on imports. These components account for more than 70% of the total production cost.

It is understood that in the aforementioned fields, 75% of the precision reducer is monopolized by Japan and domestic high-priced purchases account for 45% of the production cost, while in Japan it is only 25%. The cost of purchasing core components in China is already higher than that of foreign countries. The overall selling price of robots cannot compete with foreign brands in the high-end robot market.

In Luo Jun’s view, it is impossible to “turn oversaw” itself in the field of traditional robots, and our country’s robotics industry is falling into a misunderstanding. “First, the “machine substitution” plan promoted by coastal cities has not put the market demand and industry of robots. Cultivate effective integration; Second, local investment attracts only immediate interests. Although robots have temporarily upgraded traditional manufacturing industries, they have created a large number of new traditional robot companies and will face the pressure of new industrial transformation and upgrading again in 35 years.”

“The third is that the overall development strategy of robots lacks strategic and forward-looking thinking. Over-emphasizing the independent R&D and production of core components, but neglecting the background of the robot industry 2.0 era, traditional servo motors, controllers, and reducers may no longer be Is the core, will be replaced by new core components." Luo Jun believes that if the robot does not have the function of artificial intelligence, it is not a true sense of the robot.

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