2016 Global Shipping Development Trends

With the advent of 2016, the development of the shipping industry has become the focus of attention. Obviously, some shipping companies will remain difficult, while well-funded companies may catch rare opportunities. It can be expected that integration will also continue to be a feature of the coming year.

A few days ago, Junichiro Ikeda, CEO of Mitsui Merchant Shipping, stated in his New Year’s address that the recovery prospects of the shipping industry are minimal, and Mitsui, a merchant ship, has almost no optimistic expectations for the next 12 months. Looking back at 2015, the sharp drop in oil prices to a low in nearly 11 years has become a decisive factor in the development of the market in the past year. The political tension in the Middle East caused the price of Brent oil to reach US$37.99/bbl, which was a 1.9% increase earlier this year. In this regard, most analysts do not believe that oil prices will continue to rise in 2016.

The downturn in oil prices also made ship owners happy. Low oil prices mean lower operating costs, and current fuel prices remain at the level of US$170-180/tonne, which is a low price that has barely appeared in the past 10 years. At the same time, the field of oil tankers (shipping shipyards) also benefited from the drop in oil prices. In 2015, the oil tanker owner enjoyed the best year since 2008. As of the end of 2015, VLCC's freight rates remained at the level of $100,000/day. However, how long the oil tanker market can continue to flourish remains a problem. Although the market is still maintaining a strong trend, as more and more orders for new ships are signed, many people in the industry have already sounded the alarm that the strong trend will not be in the first quarter of 2016 or after the second quarter of 2016. continued.

Although the oil transportation industry has become the gold master of the current shipping industry, the offshore industry has continued to suffer from the impact of low oil prices. In the past year, the profits of marine vessels and drilling rigs (sold and sold in shipyards) have dropped significantly, many orders have been cancelled, and some companies are on the brink of bankruptcy. In the coming year, as the trade volume of oil companies continues to slump, the demand for offshore vessels and drilling platforms is expected to decrease further. Cash flow will become the most urgent issue for many companies in this area.

For the bulk shipping industry, the market outlook does not seem bright. With the bursting of the mass commodity market bubble, China’s demand has decreased and the demand for the bulk market has continued to decrease. Although nobody wanted to see it, in December last year, the BDI index broke the historical record, setting a record low since the record was founded. It only lasted at 478 points by the end of the year. Looking forward to 2016, the continued weakness in market demand growth and the continued widening of the gap in capacity supply and demand will make it difficult for shipowners to look at the market. Among them, Scorpio Bulkers, which had been the owner of the world's largest bulk carrier (shipping shipyards) for several years ago, sold five Capesize bulk carriers for $167 million last year and withdrawn from the market. .

The container shipping market performed well in the first half of 2015, but it was still struggling in the second half. Due to the lower-than-expected demand for container freight and the surge in new shipping capacity in the market, especially the large number of mega-vessels entering the market has increasingly exerted downward pressure on the freight rate of freight transportation. Scale efficiency will become a key issue for the container shipping industry in 2016, both in ship size and company size. Integration will become an important feature of the container shipping market in the coming year, and the acquisition of Oriental Sea Emperor and COSCO China Shipping by CMA will also become a key development for the consolidation of the container shipping industry in 2016. With the increasingly difficult development of the enterprise and the continuous downturn in the market environment, it is expected that only companies with sufficient funds will see opportunities for growth in the coming year.