Shenyin Wanguo: reform of refined oil price taxation
Shenyinuoguo issued an investment report on December 8, after the reform of refined oil prices and taxes, large commercial vehicles benefited significantly.
Recently, the State has introduced a reform plan for refined oil product taxes and fees (draft for solicitation of opinions). The main content is: abolition of road maintenance fees and other charges. The six tolls such as road maintenance fees, waterway maintenance fees, highway transportation management fees, highway passenger and freight surcharges, water transportation management fees, water transport passenger and freight surcharges, etc. will be cancelled. Gradually and orderly cancel the approved government reimbursement of secondary road tolls. Product oil consumption tax unit tax arrangements. The unit tax for gasoline consumption tax rose from 0.2 yuan per litre to 1 yuan, diesel oil rose from 0.1 yuan per litre to 0.8 yuan, and the tax rate for other refined oil units increased accordingly.
In this regard, Shenyin Wanguo believes that this policy is mainly for energy conservation and environmental protection, tax fairness. 1) The fuel cost is measured in terms of quantity, that is, according to the amount of fuel used. The method that belongs to a fixed amount of tax is not related to the price of oil (ad valorem related to oil price), so that consumers will not be fluctuating because of oil prices. Increase the amount of tax paid. In addition, consumers with high fuel consumption and consumers with large amounts of oil may increase the cost of use (the original road maintenance fee is fixed), reflecting energy conservation and environmental protection and fair tax burden. 2) The cancellation of six expenses such as road maintenance fees exceeded expectations. The three fees for highway maintenance fees, highway transportation management fees and highway passenger and freight surcharges cancelled in this fee-reforming tax are closely related to commercial vehicles, reducing the use of commercial vehicles and exceeding market expectations.
In addition, the overall positive side of passenger vehicles, especially small-displacement vehicles will benefit. This policy will compare the cancellation of the road maintenance fee with the new gasoline consumption tax. After deducting the road maintenance fee, it will reduce the consumer's cost of use. The cost of using different displacements will be reduced between 60-780 yuan; if the model structure is divided: Need for small-displacement cars and fuel-efficient cars. If the final price of gasoline is not higher than the current price and it is the terminal retail price, as the passenger car consumers, the one-year road maintenance fee, that is, about 1,500 yuan, will be reduced, and the use cost will still be reduced.
In addition, big customers and heavy trucks benefit significantly. Shenyin Wanguoguo first compared the cancellation of the three-way fee and the new diesel consumption tax, taking into account the actual savings of consumers. After deducting the 3 fees, consumers' cost of use can be reduced. In particular, large-scale commercial vehicles (large passengers and heavy trucks) benefit significantly. The cost reduction for large customers is about 30,000 yuan. The annual reduction of heavy trucks is about 0.65 million yuan. If the final issue of diesel prices is not higher than the current price, as a commercial vehicle consumer, the reduction is one year's maintenance fees, road passenger and freight surcharges, road transport management fees, and other three fees, the cost reduction in large passenger years About 56,000 yuan, the reduced cost of heavy trucks is about 41,000 yuan. The decline in the cost of car use will stimulate demand.
If the price of oil in the later period is adjusted downward, the cost of using the car will further decline. As the difference between domestic oil price and international oil price is relatively large, assuming that the price of gasoline and diesel will be further lowered by 10% in the future, the cost of use of passenger cars and commercial vehicles will be further reduced, and the cost reduction of passenger cars will be between 2001 and 2656 yuan. The cost reduction for commercial vehicles is between RMB 25,560-80,679.
Policies change expectations and focus on the opportunity for a phased rebound. Shenyin Wanguo believes that although the full recovery of the auto industry is still early, industry demand and profit have not yet improved, but from the perspective of national policy, it is not ruled out that there will be related policies to stimulate the auto market in the later period. Although the fundamentals of the industry have not improved, the introduction of policies by the government can change the pessimistic expectations of investors. The expected change means the existence of phased opportunities, especially the need to pay attention to the varieties related to domestic demand. Based on this, Shenyin Wanguo recommends investment. The focus is on large passenger and car sub-sectors. For the heavy-duty truck industry, Shen Wan believes that it is still difficult to recover in the short-term, and that in the latter stage government policies are expected to stimulate domestic demand, while heavy-duty trucks are more related to investment and heavy trucks. The proportion of road transport vehicles and mining vehicles with large proportions is difficult to improve in the short term.
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