Under the long-short game, the international oil price oscillated downwards, making the expectation of the reduction of domestic oil prices more and more concentrated. The reporter learned from a number of social monitoring agencies that the new round of oil price adjustment window will open on June 8, 2015 (next Monday). From the current trend of crude oil (60.91, -0.35, -0.57%), the downward adjustment is expected. At around 100 yuan/ton, this will be the fourth time in the year to cut oil prices. Affected by this expectation, the domestic wholesale price of refined oil products was under pressure, and the two barrels of oil increased preferential prices but the effect was not good.
Since the domestic oil price adjustment ran aground on May 25, 2015, international oil prices have been mixed in the mid-air war. After a big uptick in the previous trading day, the international market is generally concerned that the forthcoming Vienna meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will maintain oil output on Friday, which will increase the problem of excess supply in the crude oil market, coupled with the rebound in the US dollar position and China's economic data. Poor, negative factors weakened investor demand, and on June 1st, international crude oil regained its decline. As of the close of the trading day, the light crude oil futures prices for the July delivery of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by US$0.1 to settle at US$60.2 per barrel. July Brent crude oil futures prices in London fell 0.68 US dollars to close at 64.88 US dollars a barrel.
Consistent with this, the rate of change in crude oil referenced by domestic refined oil is also negative. Zhuochuang information monitoring data shows that on June 2nd, Beijing time, the sixth working day of the 55th valuation period after the implementation of the new mechanism, the crude oil change rate was -2.88%, corresponding to a reduction rate of 95 yuan/ton.
"While US crude oil inventories have continued to decline and oil demand growth has boosted market sentiment, the dollar exchange rate has become stronger, drilling platforms have slowed down, and the world's oil supply has not changed." Zhuo Chuang analyst Hu Huichun believes that the short-term US dollar exchange rate still exists. Continuing to strengthen, the future of European and US crude oil futures may remain declining and the rate of change will continue the downward trend. The domestic downward adjustment window will be opened on June 8, when the domestic refined oil market will usher in the fourth time during the year.
According to professional analysis, the current crude oil change rate is -3.01%. OPEC's annual regular meeting will make a decision on whether to cut production this Friday. Many representatives of member states believe that it is possible to announce that the production quota will remain unchanged, adding to investors’ concerns about oversupply. Therefore, it is expected that international crude oil may still be in shock before the Vienna meeting. According to the trend, if the current crude oil spot price is used, the retail price of refined oil at 24:00 on June 8 will be reduced by 105 yuan/ton.
Affected by this expectation, domestic oil prices in southwestern and along the Yangtze River faced a downward pressure. Oil prices in East China, South China, and North China remained stable. However, midstream and downstream users were pessimistic about the outlook for oil prices, and they were slowly digesting their inventory, and their willingness to purchase was low. On June 2nd, Zhongyu Information Monitored 28 major provinces and cities in China, PetroChina and Sinopec, and its average wholesale price: Guosan 0# diesel was 5764 yuan/ton, which was 14 yuan/ton lower than the previous working day. # Gasoline was RMB 7927/ton, which was RMB 11/ton lower than the previous working day; RMB 4# diesel oil was RMB 6288/ton, which was RMB 8/ton lower than the previous working day.
According to experts, some of Sinopec's and PetroChina's main unit oil prices have steadily declined, increasing preferential concessions, but there has been no significant increase in terminal demand. Shandong smelting also implemented price cuts under the expected downward adjustment of oil prices, which ranged from RMB 30-50/tonne. Currently, the overall turnover of the domestic oil market is poor, and it is expected that the sporadic decline will continue in the future.
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