For the tire industry in 2012, it can be regarded as a "precarious" year. The end of the "Treasure Special Protection Case" in the United States has just relieved the Chinese tire companies. The implementation of the "Labeling Law" in the EU has also sounded alarm bells for tire companies in various countries. In addition, the impact of the Diaoyu Islands incident on Japanese cars and Guangzhou auto purchases all indirectly reduced the prosperity of the Chinese tire industry.

This inevitably raises doubts: Will various negative factors continue into 2013 and continue to affect the tire industry?

The U.S. "Special Security Case" ends the export or is good

"For the European Union's tire labeling law , we have made preparations several years in advance and are now able to meet the requirements." Dai Chen, deputy general manager of Max Tyre Co., Ltd., revealed to the editor of the Tire World Network recently.

He said that although Europe is one of the major markets for domestic tire exports, it will not be affected too much by the labeling law if it is prepared in advance. Coupled with the benefits brought about by the end of the United States "special security case," Daichen made a judgment of "certainly better than this year" for the Chinese tire exports in 2013.

According to the executive vice president and secretary-general of the China Rubber Industry Association, Deng Yachen, many domestic products have been rated as “green tires” by the US Environmental Protection Agency. These companies have little problem with the labeling method.

“The first stage of the EU labelling law has relatively low requirements for tire indicators. Now that domestic companies can basically achieve it, exports will not be affected too much; and the second phase will be more stringent. However, when it comes to the second phase, it is still Without a clear time point, companies should make preparations ahead of time.” Song Libo, professor-level senior engineer at the conference and exhibition department of China United Rubber Co., Ltd., also expressed similar views to Tire World.

He also said that the United States "special security case" has ended, to next year, the domestic tire companies will inevitably get back the lost market share.

Lower rubber prices can protect corporate profits

Analysing some of the domestic semi-annual financial reports issued by some tire companies, it can be found that in the first half of 2012, many companies have experienced a drop in turnover but increased net profit.

According to Song Libo, the main reason for the above phenomenon is that the price of natural rubber has dropped. “Over the past five years, the total production of natural rubber in the world has grown rapidly. This year, the price of natural rubber has dropped by nearly 50%, which naturally increases the profitability of tire companies.”

It seems that although the tire industry's boom is not high this year, it is still stronger than the downstream natural rubber industry.

A few days ago, the Rubber Research Organization (IRSG) stated that due to the deteriorating debt crisis in Europe, threatening global economic growth, the global demand for natural rubber has continued to slump, and the price of natural rubber will continue to decline due to oversupply next year.

Song Libo predicted that since the three major rubber producing countries in Southeast Asia introduced the purchase and storage of some natural rubber, measures to stabilize prices will not cause excessive changes in the prices of natural rubber in the first half of next year.

“Now the Chinese government is actively fighting for the zero tariff of natural rubber imports. If it succeeds, it will have an impact on domestic natural rubber, but it will be good news for the Chinese tire industry,” he said.

The auto market may turn for the better

Regarding whether the Chinese tire industry will become better next year, Xiong Yunjun, the deputy director of the first tire marketing management department, made the following judgment: “The automobile market will have a fixed growth rate more or less every year. New cars are faced with the problem of tire replacement. The market will have A certain amount of growth."

Xiong Yunjun also pointed out that given the cruel environment this year, tire companies will reduce their growth expectations when they plan for next year. He predicted that the situation of the Chinese tire industry will be better than this year next year, but it will continue to grow slowly in single digits, unable to reproduce the "golden age" of 2009 and 2010.

Speaking of the impact of the auto market on the tire industry, Song Libo's point is that the adverse conditions of the auto market in 2012 are "accidental," and the storm caused by the Diaoyu Islands incident will slowly subside. By 2013, it will basically return to its previous level. He believes that in combination with various factors, the annual growth rate of the Chinese tire industry in 2013 could reach 5%. "If the EU market is better, the United States has no other moves, and it may be even higher."

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