Baltic dry bulk freight index fell due to slowing cargo trade

According to news from London on November 30th, the dry bulk freight index of the Baltic Trade Exchange declined for the fourth consecutive trading day on Tuesday, as the slowdown of cargo trade pressured the market for large-sized Capesizes.

The Baltic dry bulk freight index fell 2.14% or 46 points to 2,099 points on Tuesday. The index measures the transportation costs of iron ore, cement, grain, coal, and fertilizers.

Georgi Slavov, Head of Dry Bulk Research and Structural Commodities at ICAP Shipping, a shipping agency in the UK, said, “If China starts to restock, the Capesize market will once again find support, but I don’t think China will be able to Collect and store."

The Baltic's capesize index fell by 5.98% on Tuesday, and the average profit of Capesize vessels fell to US$27,351, the lowest since August 10. Capesize vessels usually carry 150,000 tons of coal or iron ore and other commodities.

The number of iron ore imported from India continues to decline, forcing China to seek supplies from more remote areas. The High Court of Karnataka in India last Friday expressed support for the country’s iron ore export ban, which will continue to be implemented. The ban has been implemented since July and has forced many mines to close.

Slavov said that India’s exports of small-scale Panamax iron ore have picked up moderately in recent days, and the increase in Indonesia’s coal exports has also supported the Panamax market.

The Baltic's panamax index rose by 0.89% on Tuesday. The average profit of this type of vessel rose to US$19,068, which was the seventh consecutive day of the index's rise. The Baltic's supramax index rose 0.93%.

The Baltic dry bulk freight index fluctuates considerably this year, which is the same as in 2009, as China's demand for iron ore fluctuates. The index reached a high of 4,200 points this year in May.

Brokers said that market investors have been concerned about whether the Chinese central bank will raise interest rates, and this will lead to a slowdown in iron ore imports and shipping activities.

Analysts are waiting for a survey of China's manufacturing activity to be released on Wednesday.

Arctic Securities said, "We expect that if the economy does not show any signs of slowing after the recent tightening policy, the Chinese government will further adopt a tightening policy - it may raise interest rates before Christmas."

Analysts said that the speed of launching new ships in 2011 and 2012 will put pressure on ship shipments in the coming months, although there are indications that some of the ship construction has been cancelled and postponed.

Broadly speaking, the market fears that the pace of global economic recovery may impact the shipping market because 90% of global trade is transported by sea.